The Government cold miss its target of delivering 300,000 new homes by 2030 by more than 120,000 units.
That’s according to Deloitte’s latest Crane Survey report which has suggested the target set out in the Government’s Delivering Homes, Building Communities (2025–2030) report last November would fall short by between 123,400 and 136,100 homes, largely because planning permissions were “not keeping pace”.
Deloitte’s survey, which tracks construction activity in the Republic, estimates that 40,000 new homes will be completed this year.
“While this reflects a 10% increase on 2025, it means 260,000 more homes are needed in the next four years to reach the 300,000 figure,” it said.
The report from the consultancy firm highlighted several potential problems that could thwart the current momentum, including the high levels of planning permissions that lapse before construction commences and the time lag between planning permissions and construction.
While 182,130 homes have been granted planning permission over the last five years, historical Central Bank data indicate that between 25% to 32% of these permissions never commenced construction.
“If we assume the same lapse ratio as the Central Bank analysis, this shortfall sits between 123,400 and 136,100 homes,” the report found.
Although there is time between now and 2030 for more units to be granted planning permission, Deloitte noted there is typically a time lag between planning permission and construction commencing.
“This means that the next 12-18 months will be critical to closing this gap,” it said.
The Government’s housing plan has a goal of delivering 300,000 new homes by the end of 2030. Meeting this target would require completions to rise from around 36,000 last year to 50,000-60,000 annually.
“The next 12-18 months are critical if Ireland is to avoid a substantial housing shortfall by 2030,” chief economist at Deloitte Ireland, Kate English, said.
“Even though our Crane Survey estimates that completions are on course to reach their highest volume since 2008, the planning permission pipeline is less promising,” she said. “The high number of completions can also be attributed to the 2024 development levy waiver, which is due to expire this year.
“To avail of it, construction must be completed by December 31st, 2026, and that will have driven completion figures until this point,” she added.
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