The Government’s housing targets will not be met this year or next.
That’s according to the Economic Social and Research Institute (ESRI) in their latest quarterly bulletin.
The think thank has predicted that housing completions will rise to 35,000 by the end of this year after an upturn in the second quarter of 2025.
However, while this would be up on the 30,330 completions from last year, it would still fall short of Government targets of 41,000 for this year.
Completions for 2026 are also expected to come in below target at just under 36,000 on the back of what the ESRI described as “a notable slowdown in commencements this year following the policy-related spike in 2024”.
Commencements hit a post-crash record last year as builders rushed to avail of development levy waivers brought in to stimulate housing construction, but they have fallen away since. The Government has set a target of building 303,000 homes between 2025 and 2030, when its term in office is due to end.
The revised targets would mean delivering an average of 50,500 homes per year.
Under the revised Housing for All targets set by the previous administration, that meant delivering 41,000 homes this year, rising incrementally to 60,000 homes in 2030.
However, a slowdown in construction linked to higher borrowing costs has left these targets very much in doubt.
In its report, the ESRI also highlighted a rise in construction sector earnings relative to other sectors, which it warned might have implications for the delivery of the National Development Plan (NDP) and the housing targets.
“As evidenced by the recent rise in construction wages, the sector is unlikely to have the capacity to simultaneously increase housing output substantially, invest in critical infrastructure, and retrofit and renovate the existing housing stock at full employment,” the ESRI said.
“Trade-offs will have to be made and certain activities given priority to meaningfully address these bottlenecks,” it said.
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