Ireland needs to build 93,000 homes a year to meet demand between now and 2031.
That’s the view of stockbroker Davy in their ‘Reforms needed for housing delivery’ report which was published this week.
The estimate of 93,000 homes required to satisfy growing demand is significantly higher than the housebuilding targets included in the recent Programme for Government, which estimates that 300,000 new homes will be built between now and 2030.
Davy's forecast is based on its estimate that the population will reach six million by 2031. The report also estimates that the housing shortfall is now 230,000 homes.
It also says the lack of housing is impacting on household formation for younger age groups as it affects that cohort of the population having families.
"Urgent reforms are needed. These include an overhaul of strict rent caps, a number of measures targeted at reducing housing construction costs, and further streamlining of the planning system for critical infrastructure, including housing development," the report says.
It also says it will take "considerably longer than seven years" to reach the Housing Commission's recommendation that the share of the social housing stock be increased to 20%.
Davy says the need for housing has been continuously "systematically underestimated due to an unexpectedly strong economic and population backdrop."
Davy's Chief Economist Kevin Timoney said that, at best, Ireland can build up to 75,000 houses a year by 2031 despite demand by this time requiring more.
Mr Timoney said this would "be a stabilisation basically of the situation" as it will "still leave the country short of what's needed".
Speaking on RTÉ's News at One, Mr Timoney said for the forecast figure to be achievable "some reforms are necessary", including apartment delivery.
This, he said, "is going to be a big part of any scale up" as this is the " main source" of why housing targets have been missed.
He said the difference between what is fundamentally needed for the rest of the decade and what was delivered "is huge".
Pent up demand "is really significant", he said, adding that "it does not go away".
Last year there were only 30,000 homes built in Ireland, which fell short of the Government's official target of 33,000.
Follow MyHome on WhatsApp for all the latest property news and advice.
